Bitcoin (BTC) bulls face a tough task to bring BTC price action past $35,000, fresh analysis predicts.
In its latest market update on July 5, trading firm QCP Capital flagged the mid-$30,000 range as a potential cooling-off point for the Bitcoin bull market.
Bitcoin homes in on post-FTX rally peak
With BTC price stagnating around $30,000, concerns are mounting that the majority of its gains have already materialized.
The area between $35,000 and $40,000 is now particularly popular among market participants seeking to catch a local top, and QCP is one of them.
“Tactically (short-term), our favoured trade to play this is selling end-Sep 33k to 35k calls, and using the premiums to buy 30k puts,” it summarized about its plans for H2 trading.
QCP highlighted incoming resistance for the moving average convergence/divergence (MACD) indicator — designed to measure price strength at given levels during a market trend — at $35,000.
“The top-side levels work well as any rally from here would be considered the ending 5th wave from the November FTX lows,” it continued.
“The 33-35k level is also where we see wedge resistance as well as MACD hitting 3-year triangle resistance.”
The update also referenced a cooling macroeconomic environment potentially offering few volatility cues for markets.
The United States Federal Reserve remains hawkish, and officials have maintained that further interest rate hikes will come this year despite inflation showing a consistent downtrend.
“On the macro side, the Fed looks locked into another hike this month (although this is largely priced by markets), and inflation appears likely to stagnate around 3-4% until year-end, with positive base effects from the oil price decline ending this quarter, and high frequency rent prices turning back up,” it explained.
“This means that while falling inflation has been getting the market excited, for the Fed with their 2% inflation target blinkers on – its close but probably still not enough for rate cuts.”
When it comes to the principal catalyst for BTC price strength over the past month — the potential U.S. approval of the first Bitcoin spot-based exchange-traded fund (ETF) — there is likewise no imminent decision due, QCP added.
$30 million Binance ask sparks concerns
Elsewhere, traders on the day continually raised the possibility of a fresh BTC price correction.
William Clemente, a co-founder of Reflexivity Research, revealed data showing that futures traders were far from universally bullish on Bitcoin.
“Everyone is bullish”
Quarterly futures basis says otherwise pic.twitter.com/eXRa36LwS2
— Will Clemente (@WClementeIII) July 4, 2023
Keith Alan, a co-founder of monitoring resource Material Indicators, said he was “expecting a pullback” as a new block of resistance appeared on the Binance order book at $36,000.
“Not sure bulls will make it to $36k, but don’t think this rally is over yet. I could be wrong. Watching charts for clues,“ part of the commentary stated alongside a chart showing the $30 million ask wall.
This article does not contain investment advice or recommendations. Every investment and trading move involves risk, and readers should conduct their own research when making a decision.